Report Date: Fri. January 27, 2012
Surf Synopsis:(Friday) Large surf backs down through the weekend and early next week, as we wait for a couple more pulses to arrive mid-next week. The second WNW could be fairly good, if the weather prediction is correct. Read more for details
Buoy Readings:
46059 California Buoy – 7 @ 11 seconds
46212 Humboldt Bay – 9 feet @ 13 seconds from 284 degrees
46014 Pt Arena Buoy – 10 feet @ 14 seconds
46026 San Francisco– 9 feet @ 14 sec from 272 degrees
46042 Monterey – 11 feet @ 12 seconds from 291 degrees
46028 Cape San Martin – 10 feet @ 14 seconds from 291 degrees
The CDIP Buoy 157 is currently showing Northern Hemisphere swell at around 14 seconds from 290 degrees and Southern Hemisphere swell is at around 20 seconds from 165 degrees
At report time most of Northern California’s standout west-facing breaks are seeing surf from a overhead to double overhead. Central Coast breaks are generally around shoulder high to a several feet overhead. South facing spots are chest to a couple feet overhead.
Water temps are in the low to mid 50’s through most of Northern and Central California, Crescent City showing 51, Pt Arena 51. The San Francisco buoy is around 52 degrees and farther south, Monterey is seeing 53 degrees and the Cape San Martin Buoy is at 54 degrees
Wind Outlook:
(Friday) winds are looking calm to light this morning out of the N- NE for most places. The gradient is expected to shift more offshore tomorrow, but strengthening is questionable. Either way fairly good wind through the weekend. Sunday night they look like they will shift back onshore again. Monday looks light to moderate onshore, but we could be in for another day of calm to light NE wind on Tuesday.
Weather Outlook:
Its really foggy this morning through the Bay Area, but hopefully that will burn off soon as the surface high continues to build. Elsewhere its looking pretty nice with clear skies and sun. This looks like tomorrow should be dry and a bit warmer as the ridge continues to build to the northeast. The fog shouldn’t be as bad tomorrow morning too, which will be nice. The ridge breaks down on Sunday as shortwave energy passes to the north. This could bring a chance for rain to Northern California, but it shouldn’t make its way south of the Bay. The ridge could start to build again Monday, bringing possible offshores again Tuesday, and then holding through Thursday.
Swell Forecast and Schedule:
The WNW (275-290) that showed up Thursday should back down through the weekend. Size could get pretty small on Sunday into the start of Monday, but conditions look fairly fun through that time period still. Might just mean a bit of an equipment swap.
After that, the models early yesterday showed a condensed system moving off of Asia that developed seas around 33 feet. The fetch didn’t last very long, so size is probably going to be fairly small to moderate, but it could mean some fun 16-second WNW (280-300) swell building Monday and peaking Tuesday before backing down a bit mid-week.
Further out, the short-range models about 27 hours out are continuing to show a very large system moving off of East Asia. The result: seas in the range of 40 feet. That's pretty big, and it would only take about 4.5 days for the 20-second swell to travel across the North Pacific to land on our doorstep next Wednesday. Size should continue to build through Thursday, with stand out breaks seeing moderate to + sized surf and possibly even a little bigger. Size should back down starting Friday through the weekend.
Beyond that the models hold off on any new developments till around the 1st. When another fetch could form off the West Coast just NNE of Hawaii. The numbers are a bit far out to calculate confidently right now, but it looks like another moderate sized 16 to 18 second W swell for around the 3rd. Stay tuned.
Here's what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:
Today (Friday the 27th) the big pulse of swell from Thursday should start backing down, but size is still expected to be shoulder high to several feet overhead and possibly even DOH at stand out breaks in the morning. Light to moderate winds continue, although could start to shift offshore later in the day.
Saturday the 28th waist to overhead+ possibly couple feet overhead surf from a mix of leftover mid-period (11-13 seconds) WNW continues. Offshore winds are expected, and could make for some fun conditions.
Sunday the 29th we’re looking at moderate size in the waist to overhead range holding at standouts, but the mix of swell could get a jolt of onshores as a shortwave low passes through the region, making things a little on the messy side. Overnight 19-second forerunners for the next WNW (275-295) are due to arrive.
Monday the 30th WNW is expected to build through the day, bringing some moderate sized surf to the region. Stand out breaks that can pick up the 16-second periods could be in the waist to overhead range.
Tuesday the 31st WNW should continue to build with periods around 14-seconds mixing with possibly a little WNW windswell and other mixed mid-period swell out of the Gulf of Alaska. Stand out breaks could be in the chest to overhead+ range, maybe even a couple feet overhead. Overall this should make from some decent combo, although winds are looking questionable with a new front approaching.
Wednesday the 1st quite the mix of swell expected with mid-period WNW leftover from Monday and Tuesday, and new 18-second WNW building through the day. This new swell should be a bit bigger bringing wave heights back up into the shoulder high to several feet overhead range possibly late in the evening.
Thursday the 2nd new WNW (280-300) peaks in the range of overhead to DOH with stand outs possibly seeing DOH+. Periods should be around 17 seconds.
Beyond that new long-period WNW could arrive Friday bringing more moderate sized surf for next weekend. Stay tuned.
After that, the models early yesterday showed a condensed system moving off of Asia that developed seas around 33 feet. The fetch didn’t last very long, so size is probably going to be fairly small to moderate, but it could mean some fun 16-second WNW (280-300) swell building Monday and peaking Tuesday before backing down a bit mid-week.
Further out, the short-range models about 27 hours out are continuing to show a very large system moving off of East Asia. The result: seas in the range of 40 feet. That's pretty big, and it would only take about 4.5 days for the 20-second swell to travel across the North Pacific to land on our doorstep next Wednesday. Size should continue to build through Thursday, with stand out breaks seeing moderate to + sized surf and possibly even a little bigger. Size should back down starting Friday through the weekend.
Beyond that the models hold off on any new developments till around the 1st. When another fetch could form off the West Coast just NNE of Hawaii. The numbers are a bit far out to calculate confidently right now, but it looks like another moderate sized 16 to 18 second W swell for around the 3rd. Stay tuned.
Here's what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:
Today (Friday the 27th) the big pulse of swell from Thursday should start backing down, but size is still expected to be shoulder high to several feet overhead and possibly even DOH at stand out breaks in the morning. Light to moderate winds continue, although could start to shift offshore later in the day.
Saturday the 28th waist to overhead+ possibly couple feet overhead surf from a mix of leftover mid-period (11-13 seconds) WNW continues. Offshore winds are expected, and could make for some fun conditions.
Sunday the 29th we’re looking at moderate size in the waist to overhead range holding at standouts, but the mix of swell could get a jolt of onshores as a shortwave low passes through the region, making things a little on the messy side. Overnight 19-second forerunners for the next WNW (275-295) are due to arrive.
Monday the 30th WNW is expected to build through the day, bringing some moderate sized surf to the region. Stand out breaks that can pick up the 16-second periods could be in the waist to overhead range.
Tuesday the 31st WNW should continue to build with periods around 14-seconds mixing with possibly a little WNW windswell and other mixed mid-period swell out of the Gulf of Alaska. Stand out breaks could be in the chest to overhead+ range, maybe even a couple feet overhead. Overall this should make from some decent combo, although winds are looking questionable with a new front approaching.
Wednesday the 1st quite the mix of swell expected with mid-period WNW leftover from Monday and Tuesday, and new 18-second WNW building through the day. This new swell should be a bit bigger bringing wave heights back up into the shoulder high to several feet overhead range possibly late in the evening.
Thursday the 2nd new WNW (280-300) peaks in the range of overhead to DOH with stand outs possibly seeing DOH+. Periods should be around 17 seconds.
Beyond that new long-period WNW could arrive Friday bringing more moderate sized surf for next weekend. Stay tuned.
