Central America

Report Date: Fri. October 24, 2014
By Forecaster: Austin Gendron: austin@globalsurfreports.com

Tropical Conditions:
There's an area of low pressure producing clouds and thunderstorms a couple hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  It doesn't look like this thing will develop into a tropical cyclone this weekend, but it has a 50% chance early next week as the system starts to work its way northward.  More on that next week.


Swell Forecast:
Small SW (215-220) will slowly shift more SSW (190-210) through the weekend.  The recent storm energy south of the Pitcairn Islands has been pretty weak, but managed to climb up in latitude to around 35S-40S, which is relatively close considering most of the other fetch has been staying close to the ice shelf.  The 3-4 foot swell is expected to peak on Sunday and could bring chest high to overhead+ surf to standouts.  Some of the better exposures could be seeing wave heights running well overhead through the weekend and early next week easing through the middle of next week.

As the SSW-SW swell settles, global models are showing a small increase in S-SW windswell developing for Central American countries Monday and Tuesday.  Doesn't look all that big, but could bring some consistency in the waist to head high range for the exposed coast as the long-period swell backs off.  On the other hand, this looming tropical activity up near Southern Mexico could mean building windswell for that area through the middle of next week.  Too early to call for sure though seeing as its dependent on the storm system which won't have a chance of coming together until next week.

Further out, that background energy from the SW (210-225) I've mentioned in earlier forecasts is expected to arrive next Friday the 31st.  It's not going to be all that big, but could bring 2-3 feet of deepwater energy to the region with periods around 15 to 16 seconds.  That's good enough for more waist to head high+ surf at the regions standouts.

Beyond that, the models show another couple weak systems down near New Zealand and south of French Polynesia generating a couple more small pulses of background swell over the next few days from the SW (210-225).  Those overlapping pulses should arrive the first week of November, and are likely to be small like the one due late next week.

CHECK OUT solspot.com for more swell info  


Weekly Outlook:
Friday the 24th, the blend of SW and SSW continues to build, with standouts ranging from waist to head high, with a few sneaky sets at better breaks in the overhead-overhead+ range.

Saturday the 25th, more SSW piles on, bringing standouts into the chest high to overhead range, possibly bigger at better exposures.

Sunday the 26th, the peaking SSW swell should mean more chest to overhead+ surf at standouts.

Monday the 27th, the SSW swell should hold its peak for the northern half of the region as the southern half starts to see easing size.  Standouts should continue to see chest to overhead+, while the more average breaks start to settle into the waist to shoulder high+ range.

Tuesday the 28th Average breaks of Central America should continue to see waist to head high surf thanks to the increase in windswell.  SSW leftovers will continue to ease though and overall surf will back off a bit more for those areas not seeing the windswell.

Wednesday the 29th wave heights back off more, with standouts seen waist to chest high+ surf.  Could be increasing windswell for Souther Mexico depending on tropical system.

Thursday the 30th, small 18-second forerunners for the background SW start to show, wave heights should hold in the waist to shoulder high range at standouts.

austin@globalsurfreports.com