Central America

Report Date: Mon. September 22, 2014
By Forecaster: Austin Gendron: austin@globalsurfreports.com

Tropical Conditions:
Polo is currently a tropical depression located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of Baja and sustaining winds of 25 knots.  The current track shows the storm fizzling out over the next day and a half.

Another low located about 300 miles SSE of Acapulco, MX is showing signs of development right now.  It has a 70% chance of beaming a tropical cyclone in the next 2 days and a 90% chance in the next 5 days.  More than likely we're looking at TD forming in the next day or so.  Global models aren't in very good agreement on how strong this system will get, but the southern coast of Mexico could see some breezy easterly winds midweek as the storm starts to move west.  The long-range forecast for this guy is looking more promising for sending some surfable swell to Central and Northern Mexico without all the wind.  We'll have to see who it shapes up though.


Swell Forecast:
Today we're seeing a mix of leftover SW (210-220) and S (180-190), some short to mid-period energy from the south, and the peak of a small pulse of SSW (205-215) that arrived over the weekend.  Overall most of the region should be seeing waist to head high+ surf at standouts, with a few top breaks seeing head high to overhead+ waves.  The mix of swell will ease more Tuesday and Wednesday.

Next up we're going to see a new S-SSW (180-200) swell arriving Thursday.  The swell is expected to peak in the 3-4 foot range on Friday mixing with mid-period energy coming off the coast of Peru and over the outer waters between Central America and the Galapagos Islands.  This could generate a few feet of swell as well, although shorter periods.  The mix should be enough to boost the swell a little bit for the end of the week (especially farther south).  Friday looks like the peak day with wave heights at standout spots running chest to overhead+.

As the mix from the end of the week starts to ease through the weekend another small mix of S-SSW (180-210) will build.  Alone this guy would only generate knee to chest high surf, but as with the combination of leftovers, it could help maintain waist to head high surf through the weekend and start of the upcoming week.

Looking further out, the storm energy that I've been tracking down near New Zealand has been inconsistent to say the least, but its not all bad news.  Here's the scenario.  There are two systems, the first will track south of Tahiti over the next couple of days, possibly generating seas around 25-30 feet.  Most of that fetch is in the French Polynesia swell shadow though and will target the South Pacific island chain.  There may be some inconsistent and small SW (230-240) filling in mid to late next week.  The second storm is the big one that just last week was bragging seas around 50 feet.  This week, its looking more like 30-35 foot seas.  The good news is that the two systems are expected to link up mid-week, generating a very long fetch that extends from the dateline SE of New Zealand up towards Tahiti.  As the first system rotates down towards the ice the second will intensify and again and move NE into the mid-latitudes helping maintain a decent fetch through late in the week.  In the end we could see a solid moderate to plus sized SSW-SW (200-215) swell arriving with 18 to 19-second periods on the 4th/5th of October.

Beyond that the long-range forecast models show some small background SW (210-220) following up the bigger pulse around the 8th helping extend the life of the swell a little bit.   Stay tuned.

CHECK OUT solspot.com for more swell info  


Weekly Outlook:
Monday the 22nd, the SSW swell will hold its peak through the start of the day, still offering up some waist to head high+ surf for standouts.  Top breaks could be seeing overhead to overhead+ surf.

Tuesday the 23rd, the SSW starts to ease, with more consistent waist to shoulder high+ surf for standouts.

Wednesday the 24th, southerly exposures of Central America could see a rise in windswell, possibly bringing more consistent but weaker waist to head high+ energy to the region.  The SSW energy will continue to back off.

Thursday the 25th windswell continues for those areas that are exposed to it. Wave heights should continue to run waist to head high+, but could be a bit mushy and unorganized.  Smaller surf at the less exposed breaks.  New S swell starts to fill in late in the day.

Friday the 26th the mix of S-SSW swell should peak, with wave heights at standouts in the chest high to overhead+ range.  More average breaks will continue to see waist to head high surf.

Saturday the 27th the swell mix starts to ease a little bit wave heights should be in the chest to overhead high+ range still for most standouts.

Sunday the 28th wave heights start to back off more, with standouts seeing waist to head high+ waves.  There'll a little bit of S-SSW energy that should be filling in, but its looking pretty small, could help add a little peakiness to a few areas.

austin@globalsurfreports.com