Central America

Report Date: Wed. July 30, 2014
By Forecaster: Austin Gendron: austin@globalsurfreports.com

Tropical Conditions:
There are two areas of interest currently in the CEPac, although, one of the systems is almost 1600 miles SW of Baja west of 130 west and only has a 10% chance.  The other is about 1000 miles SSW and has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next couple of days.  The probability does increase for the 5-day outlook to 80%, but the storm is moving at 10 to 15 mph WNW away from Mainland Mex and Central America.  So don't expect any tropical swell over the next week unless you head to Baja.


Swell Forecast:
Smaller leftovers from earlier in the week continue to bring surfable waves to the region today.  As the south swell eases through the end of the week we're going to see a some new SW (215-225) building to a peak on Friday.  the average spots should see waist to shoulder high+ surf, with standouts seeing sets in the head high to overhead+ range.  Another pulse arrives on Friday and will slowly build as the first pulse eases.  This should help maintain wave heights through the weekend.

Things start to look much much better early next week.  There is a large mid-latitude storm currently generating 30-40 knot winds over a large 1200 mile stretch of ocean, aimed mostly at Central America.  The clenched is this thing is going to get as close as 3500 miles from Central America..  The resulting SW (210-225) swell should arrive with 20-second forerunners on the 3rd/4th, building to a peak that could hold from the 5th-6th.  Swell heights are expected to be around 5 to 7 feet along the exposed coast, which means some large surf, with standouts seeing overhead to double overhead, and top breaks peaking with double to triple overhead surf.  The Galapagos shadow it looks like could be over southern Costa Rica unfortunately, but the swell is big enough that there will still be some big waves rollin through. Size will slowly ease through the second half of next week/weekend.

Looking a bit further out there's another intense storm that's supposed to brew SSW of Easter Island early to mid-next week.  The models are looking hot for this one, with seas in the 30-35 foot range.  The storm doesn't climb all that high in latitude (falls apart as it reaches 50S), it mostly sticks near the ice, but is likely to still  generate a nice pulse of S-SSW (190-210) around the 12th/13th.

Beyond that, there's some massive storm energy brewing south of Australia over the next week, and that could result in possible long-period SW swell arriving around the middle of August.  Way too early to call for sure though.  Stay tuned.

CHECK OUT solspot.com for more swell info  


Weekly Outlook:
Wednesday the 30th small SW background energy and leftovers from earlier in the week should mean more knee to chest high  surf, with a few bigger sets at standouts.

Thursday the 31st, the mix of background SW starts to build a little bit, could mean more consistent waist to shoulder high surf at average SW spots.  Standouts could be see a few more head high or overhead sets.

Friday the 1st SW swell peaks, with waist to head high surf at average spots and a few more head high to overhead+ sets at standouts.

Saturday the 2nd Old SW swell fades as new SW builds, should help maintain consistent waist to head high surf with a few bigger sets at standouts.

Sunday the 3rd, SW swell holds in the waist to head high range with standouts seeing bigger sets in the head high to overhead+ range.  Forerunners for the bigger SSW-SW swell due late.

Monday the 4th, the big pulse of SSW-SW is due to build through the day.  Wave heights are expected to increase, with average exposures running head high to several feet overhead, standouts could be seeing overhead to double overhead surf, with top breaks seeing the occasional bigger set later in the day.

Tuesday the 5th, the SSW-SW peaks, with overhead to double overhead surf at average breaks, standouts will be seeing surf running a couple feet overhead to double overhead+, and top deepwater spots could be seeing set waves running a double to triple overhead.
austin@globalsurfreports.com