Central America

Report Date: Mon. September 1, 2014
By Forecaster: Austin Gendron: austin@globalsurfreports.com

Tropical Conditions:
There's currently a trough of low pressure generating showers and thunderstorms off the southwest coast of Mexico right now.  It has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 2 days and 80% chance in the next 5 days.  It's not doing much as of right now, but will be generating onshore winds for Southern Mexico over the next couple of days.  Winds are likely to shift more E-SE through the week as the storm moves up the coast.  Central and Northern Mexico will start seeing stronger S-SE winds later this week, generating windswell up the coast into the Gulf of California and for Southern Baja.


Swell Forecast:
As far as long-period swell goes, we're going to continues to see a mix of overlapping SW (210-225 for a couple more days.  This should help maintain some fun chest to head high+ surf at standouts through the first half of the week.

Early Wednesday we'll start to see the see the arrival of a series of SSW (200-215) swells.  Forerunners are supposed to be in the 20-24 second range, and the swell will quickly build through the end of the day Wednesday and through Thursday.  The swell will peak on the 5th/6th possibly in the 5 to 7 foot range with long periods in the 17 to 18 second range.  That could equate to some solid overhead to double overhead surf for standouts.

As we look a bit further out, the storm track appears to hold south of French Polynesia, which will allow a couple more pulses of S-SSW (185-200) swell to develop over the next couple of days.  The first should arrive on the 7th building through early next week followed by another on the 10th.  This will help maintain 3-5 feet of deepwater swell through the middle of next week, prolonging the run of of surf through the second half of next week.  Size looks a little smaller, but should still be fairly consistent as the leftovers from the first swell trail off.

Beyond that the models show the South Pacific quieting down again, but the season isn't over yet, so we'll have to see how things shape up over the next week.  Stay tuned.

CHECK OUT solspot.com for more swell info  


Weekly Outlook:
Monday the 1st, the chest to overhead+ surf holds at standout SW exposures.

Tuesday the 2nd the trend holds, and new forerunners for the next run of swells could start to arrive late.

Wednesday the 3rd new SSW-SW mix builds as forerunners for the larger mix start to show up more through the day, deepwater breaks could start seeing occasionally bigger sets late in the day.

Thursday the 4th, the new SSW swell continues to build, inconsistent set waves will start to show more through the day with standout breaks see in chest to overhead+ surf.  Top breaks could running head high to well overhead.

Friday the 5th, standout breaks should stet peaking with bigger set waves running a couple feet overhead to double overhead at standouts.  Average breaks will be running head high to overhead+.  Deepwater spots could be double overhead+ or bigger.

Saturday the 6th wave heights should hold in the overhead to double overhead+ range at standout SW exposures.

Sunday the 7th wave heights start to back off, but there will continue to be plenty of spots seeing head high to well overhead surf through the day.

austin@globalsurfreports.com